Reinsurance decisions are rarely about single events — they are about how risks interact across geographies, perils and portfolios.
Reinsurance is about how risks interact. Not single events, but the way signals stack: geography, peril, actor, time. Noah is built on coupling — the measurement of two independent signal streams moving together — so it reads correlation natively rather than as an after-the-fact cross-tabulation.
When port closure and road closure couple at Jaccard 1.0, cargo movement has stopped. When K&R velocity and political-violence velocity couple in the same admin-1 region, the book behind it has already shifted.
Noah produces the same structured output as for direct insurers — peril sheet, sub-national scores, peer comparison — but with the coupling layer surfaced as a first-class block.
Every run lists the top coupled peril pairs with Jaccard similarity and a one-line meaning note. Data exfiltration ↔ State-sponsored intrusion coupled at 0.33; Insurgency ↔ Frontline clashes coupled at 0.33. Each coupling is evidence for why a peril score cannot be treated in isolation.
Sub-national districts carry kidnap_freq_90d, ied_within_5km_un, ingo_convoy_incidents_90d counts — the inputs an aggregation team would want to see. When those counts spike in two adjacent districts, the book behind them stacks.
Each country gets a regime read with probability: Fragile Calm, Pressure Release, Political Crisis, Stabilisation, Regime Instability. Aggregation risk is highest where multiple books sit in correlated regimes — Noah exposes that directly.
Each country ships with a what_would_change_my_mind list — falsifiable, numeric, dated. Aggregation monitoring can subscribe to those triggers and re-rate when they fire.
The same anchor layer the direct insurance product ships with. A reinsurer reviewing a Noah bundle can cross-check any country’s read against six independent reference points without leaving the report.
UK travel advice level + regions advised against.
Level 1–4 + indicator codes (T, C, K, U, H, N, E, D, O).
IEP ranking 1–163 with overall score and three sub-scores.
Six-axis governance scores.
Sovereign designations + named entity list.
30d / 90d / 365d event counts, fatalities, top actors.
By the time patterns are clear in broker consensus or quarterly briefings, exposure has already stacked. Noah provides earlier visibility by measuring the system, not the events — and by surfacing couplings as part of the output rather than as a separate analysis.
It is not just about where risk exists.
It is about how it connects.
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