Structured insight into political violence, terrorism, civil unrest and personnel risk — designed for underwriting and exposure assessment.
Broker consensus, country-risk reports and expert surveys are useful reference points. They are also slow. Political violence does not deteriorate on a quarterly reporting cadence. By the time a view appears in a published briefing, the underlying signal has been detectable in the wider information system for days — often weeks.
Noah sits underneath that reporting layer. Continuous ingestion of roughly 1.6 million sources per refresh, paragraph-level AI sentiment, and a structured physics layer measuring velocity, trajectory, divergence, volatility and coupling. The output is decision-ready: a composite 0–100 score with documented weights, a peril breakdown, sub-national divergence, peer comparison, and a concrete underwriting verdict.
Every run is traceable to paragraph-level source and cross-referenced against six independent external benchmarks.
Noah is not a chatbot and not a news summariser. It is a structured-output system whose format is designed for underwriting use.
A weighted composite across nine perils, with the exact weights published in weights_doc on every run. No black box. Current weighting: Terrorism 0.20 · War 0.17 · Political Violence 0.15 · K&R 0.13 · SRCC 0.10 · Non-Payment 0.08 · Currency 0.07 · MedEvac 0.06 · Expropriation 0.04.
Every peril carries a signal_basis attribution (which signal families drove the score and in what proportions) and an action_trigger — a concrete underwriting action such as “Load K&R, PV/T” or “+15–25% load; deductible USD 25k → 50k”.
Each district carries a composite 0–100 plus kidnap_freq_90d, ied_within_5km_un, ingo_convoy_incidents_90d, and hospital_mci_capacity — the numeric inputs an in-house exposure team would want to see.
A verdict_per_coverage block for each district, each row reading bind, load N%, exclude or decline for K&R, MedEvac, PA, PV/T, Property and War. Working-paper-ready.
Every country-level composite can carry a peer set drawn from the returned packet for the territory being analysed — with per-peril sub-scores and a rank note per peer when Noah has genuinely comparable evidence. The number you see should be anchored against the live frame, not a hardcoded demo country.
Three horizons on every report. Each comes with a direction label (rising / flat / falling) and a one-line rationale tied to signal velocity. The short, medium and renewal-window reads in one place.
Three to five calibrated pivot points with expected magnitude — “al-Shabaab captures a district capital, composite rises to 93+”, “aid-worker K&R with ransom >USD 2m, re-rate +30% minimum”. Falsifiable, not hedged.
Every brief ends in underwriter language: “+15–25% on K&R renewals; exclude Lower Shabelle on PV/T; retain USD 1m MedEvac sub-limit; no new binders in Middle Juba without fac re.” One sentence, five decisions.
Noah is designed to be cross-checked. Every country-level bundle ships with an _external_anchors block so you (or your reviewing LLM) can independently verify the read against reference points that already sit in your workflow.
UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office travel advice. Level, regions-advised-against, summary text.
Travel advisories at Level 1–4 with the nine indicator codes — Terrorism, Crime, Kidnapping, Civil Unrest, Health, Natural Disaster, Time-limited Event, Wrongful Detention, Other.
IEP annual ranking 1–163 with overall score and three domain sub-scores: ongoing conflict, societal safety, militarisation.
Worldwide Governance Indicators on six axes: political stability, rule of law, control of corruption, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, voice and accountability.
Sovereign-level designations and named-entity designations via Risk Atlas, with last-update timestamp. For the compliance layer, not the headline.
Armed Conflict Location and Event Data — event counts, fatalities, top actors and top admin-1 regions over 30, 90 and 365-day windows.
Noah is read and cited at four points in the cycle. Each moment maps to a specific subset of the output.
Is this environment deteriorating, stabilising, or transitioning? Does the peer comparison support the rate I’m being asked to write at?
Do last year’s pricing assumptions still hold? Is the book drifting in a direction that warrants a re-rate?
Where is the book concentrating? Which sub-region of which country is moving faster than the national headline?
Does the internal model’s read hold up against an independent signal-led view? Where does the analyst’s draft disagree with the corpus?
Noah does not replace underwriting judgement.
It improves it — by providing a clearer view of how risk is actually moving, before consensus catches up.
Every output carries a mandatory contrarian read, a named blind spot, and a confidence band that is explicit rather than hedged into the prose. The audit is the point: this is a tool for underwriters who want to be able to show their working.
Better visibility.
Better decisions. Better outcomes.
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